Over the years, I've watched the market ebb and flow, but the current landscape offers a unique challenge: while US home prices continue to rise on paper, the real story is more nuanced. In Q2 2026, even as one major federal index remained flat month-over-month from mid- to late-Q2 (after seasonal adjustment), the national index reported annual appreciation close to 1.5% by late Q2—an uptick from 1% in mid-Q2. However, with inflation hovering around 3.5%, that means home values have actually slipped in real terms for the 13th month in a row. The silver lining? Slower inflation and firmer price gains are beginning to ease the rate of value erosion. Since early 2012, one federal measure has never posted a negative year-over-year change, which underscores the ongoing strength of nominal prices, even as real value faces headwinds. For many first-time buyers, however, affordability continues to be a central concern as typical monthly payments on existing single-family homes rise. Having spent more than two decades guiding clients through shifting markets, I know that clear, honest insight is essential—especially when headlines only tell part of the story. My commitment remains: to help you feel confident, informed, and supported, no matter where the market turns.
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